Middle East war shakes rates, Sweden's policy rate stays at 1.75%
The CPIF inflation forecast for 2026 rises from 0.9% to 1.5% on energy prices. Short market rates are up, so variable mortgages can still get dearer.
The Riksbank is keeping its policy rate ("styrränta") at 1.75% and expects it to stay there for some time. But Sweden's central bank says the war in the Middle East makes its forecast very uncertain.
The war has moved markets
The US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026. Since then energy prices and financial markets have swung sharply. Short-term market rates have risen and the dollar has strengthened against the krona.
The Riksbank expects the war to slow growth a little in the near term. Higher energy prices are also set to lift CPIF inflation, the Riksbank's target measure. The CPIF forecast for this year rises from 0.9% to 1.5%. Underlying inflation, on the other hand, has been unexpectedly low.
The rate path barely moves
The main scenario assumes the war has moderate effects. The policy rate forecast is the same as in December 2025: 1.75% for most of this year, 1.77% at the end of the year and 1.81% in early 2027. In practice that is an unchanged rate.
The Riksbank also sketches two other outcomes. If inflation rises broadly and for a long time, the rate may have to go up. If demand drops sharply instead, the rate may have to come down.
What it means for your mortgage
A variable mortgage rate usually follows the policy rate. Banks also borrow at market rates. So when short market rates rise, variable mortgage rates can rise even without a Riksbank hike.
Bolån Radar's data shows six large banks' average three-month rates between 2.57% and 2.67% in February 2026. Each bank's average rates over time are on the historic rates page.
A SEK 3 million loan at 2.62% costs SEK 78,600 a year before the interest deduction ("ränteavdrag"). A rise of 0.25 percentage points would add SEK 7,500 a year, or SEK 5,250 after the deduction.
Fixed rates follow bond market rates. The same banks' average two-year rate was between 2.81% and 2.95% in February 2026. A fixed loan you already have does not change until its fixed period ends.
Next decision
The next rate decision is on 7 May 2026.
Sources
- Riksbank: Monetary policy decision, March 2026 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Press release 19 March 2026 (Swedish)
- SVT: Latest on the war between Iran, the US and Israel (Swedish)
- Bolån Radar: historic average rates
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.