Sweden's Riksbank opens door to a hike: 1.82% forecast for late 2026
The policy rate stays at 1.75% on 17 June 2026. In our example, a variable rate still beats a two-year fixed rate even after a 0.25-point hike.
Sweden's Riksbank kept its policy rate ("styrränta") at 1.75% on 17 June 2026. But it now sees a higher chance of a hike later in 2026 than it did in March 2026, and it has nudged up its rate forecast.
Why a hike has become more likely
The war in the Middle East has disrupted supply for almost four months. Tension around the Strait of Hormuz has cut the supply of oil products and pushed up energy and fuel prices. Inflation abroad has risen, and Swedish businesses face higher costs.
Inflation in Sweden is still low, largely because of temporary government measures such as the lower VAT on food. Growth in the first quarter was weaker than expected. Even so, the Riksbank judges that the risk of inflation running too high has grown.
The rate path tilts slightly upward
| Quarter | March forecast | June forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.75% | 1.76% |
| Q4 2026 | 1.77% | 1.82% |
| Q1 2027 | 1.81% | 1.89% |
The forecast is a quarterly average. An average of 1.82% at the end of the year means the Riksbank sees some chance of a hike, not that a hike is decided. The forecasts use information up to 11 June 2026. They do not include the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran announced after that.
Does your fixed rate end in autumn 2026?
Bolån Radar's data shows six large banks' average rates in May 2026 between 2.67% and 2.82% for a three-month term. For a two-year term they were between 3.04% and 3.41%.
Take a SEK 3,000,000 loan. At a variable rate of 2.75% you pay SEK 82,500 a year. A two-year fixed rate ("bunden ränta") of 3.20% costs SEK 96,000. The gap is SEK 13,500 a year before the interest deduction ("ränteavdrag").
If the Riksbank hikes by 0.25 points and your bank follows, the variable rate rises to 3.00%, or SEK 90,000 a year. That is still less than the fixed rate in this example.
A fixed rate gives predictable costs. A variable rate costs less today but can rise. Compare your own offers before your fixed period ends. Our rate comparison lists every bank's current rate for each fixed term.
Next decision
The next rate decision is on 20 August 2026.
Sources
- Riksbank: Monetary policy decision, June 2026 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Press release 17 June 2026 (Swedish)
- Bolån Radar: historic average rates
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.