Sweden's Riksbank holds 1.75%, but a 2026 hike is still on the table
Inflation and growth in summer 2026 beat the Riksbank's forecast. A 0.25-point hike would add SEK 7,500 a year to a SEK 3 million mortgage.
Sweden's Riksbank is leaving its policy rate ("styrränta") at 1.75%. Over the summer, both growth and inflation ran higher than in the June 2026 forecast. The central bank still sees a chance of a rate hike later this year.
A hotter summer than expected
Inflation excluding energy prices and the effects of the temporary government measures is now fairly close to 2%. Measured inflation is still low, largely because of those measures. There are also signs that GDP grew faster than forecast, and sentiment in the economy has clearly improved.
The picture points in several directions. Companies have scaled back their price plans, disruptions in global supply chains have eased and the labour market has been slightly weaker than expected. The oil price has fallen back since the spring. But there is no peace agreement between the US and Iran, and the war goes on.
The Riksbank's signal
The Riksbank sticks to its June 2026 view that there is some probability of a hike later this year. If the summer's high inflation turns out to be the start of a larger and more lasting rise, it says it will tighten policy.
Today brought no new forecasts, only an update. The Riksbank judges that the outlook broadly holds. The latest rate path is still the one from June 2026.
What it means for your mortgage
Variable rates stay put as long as the policy rate does. Bolån Radar's historic rates show six large banks' average three-month rates between 2.67% and 2.77% in July 2026. Two-year averages ranged from 2.99% to 3.30%.
If the Riksbank hikes by 0.25 percentage points and your bank follows, a SEK 3,000,000 loan costs SEK 7,500 more a year. That is SEK 625 a month, or about SEK 440 after the 30% interest deduction ("ränteavdrag").
Fixed rates already react to the expected hike, because they follow market rates. A fixed loan you already have does not change until its fixed period ends.
Next decision
The next rate decision is on 24 September 2026, with a new Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts.
Sources
- Riksbank: Monetary policy decision, August 2026 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Press release 20 August 2026 (Swedish)
- Bolån Radar: historic average rates
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.