Sweden's Riksbank, 29 January 2026: what 0.25 points costs a mortgage
The policy rate is 1.75%. A 0.25-point move changes a SEK 3 million variable loan by SEK 7,500 a year. Fixed rates follow the bond market instead.
Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, announces its next policy rate ("styrränta") decision on 29 January 2026. A move of 0.25 percentage points changes the cost of a SEK 3,000,000 variable mortgage by SEK 7,500 a year.
The announcement is at 09:30 on Thursday. The rate is 1.75% today. The sum above is before tax relief. But the path from the Riksbank to your mortgage rate is not a straight line.
Where things stand
The Riksbank cut the policy rate from 2% to 1.75% in September 2025. The new level applied from 1 October 2025. The Riksbank said then that it expected the rate to stay at that level for some time if the outlook held. In December 2025 it left the rate unchanged.
Step 1: the policy rate steers the banks' short rates
The policy rate sets the rates at which banks can deposit and borrow money at the Riksbank. Those rates in turn shape what banks charge for loans and pay on savings accounts.
Banks also lend to each other. The main reference rate for those short loans is Stibor. It is used in variable-rate loans and bonds, and a company owned by the Swedish Bankers' Association runs it.
Step 2: the variable mortgage rate follows
A variable mortgage ("rörligt bolån") in Sweden has a three-month term. So it follows the short market rates. Sweden's consumer bank and finance bureau ("Konsumenternas Bank- och finansbyrå") says a change in the policy rate passes through fairly quickly, and mainly to variable loans.
But the banks set their own rates. The Riksbank writes that household mortgage rates move with the policy rate but also depend on other factors, such as the banks' funding costs. A cut can therefore be smaller than 0.25 points, and a rise can come without any move by the Riksbank.
Step 3: fixed rates follow the bond market
Banks raise much of the money for mortgages by issuing covered bonds ("säkerställda obligationer"), often called housing bonds. These bonds often run for several years. So the bond market mainly drives fixed rates, and it works over a longer horizon.
Bond yields depend on what the market expects of future rates, in Sweden and abroad. That means fixed rates can move in a different direction from the policy rate.
An example from December 2025: the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75%. In the same week, Skandia still raised its longer fixed rates by 0.19 to 0.29 points, according to the news agency TT. Länsförsäkringar, Nordea and Landshypotek Bank also raised their mortgage rates that week.
What 0.25 points means for you
| Loan | Change per year | Per month | Per month after tax relief |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEK 2,000,000 | 5,000 kr | 417 kr | 292 kr |
| SEK 3,000,000 | 7,500 kr | 625 kr | 438 kr |
| SEK 4,000,000 | 10,000 kr | 833 kr | 583 kr |
The interest deduction ("ränteavdrag") is 30% of interest up to SEK 100,000 a year. So the cost after tax is 70% of the cost before.
If your rate is fixed, nothing changes until the term ends. Then you get the rate for a new term on that day.
How to follow the decision
- Read the Riksbank's press release at 09:30 on Thursday. Look at the decision and at the forecast for the policy rate.
- Wait for your bank's notice. The bank decides if and when it changes its variable rate. It does not have to follow the Riksbank.
- Compare your rate with the banks' average rates in the current mortgage rates comparison. If your bank does not pass on a cut, you can negotiate.
- Think about your fixed-rate term. The forecast shows what the Riksbank expects today, not what will happen. Pick a term you can live with even if rates end up higher than expected.
Sources
- Riksbank: Monetary policy decision, December 2025 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Policy rate cut to 1.75 percent, press release 23 September 2025 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: What is the policy rate? (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Stibor (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Mortgage rates can change without a change in the policy rate (Swedish)
- Konsumenternas Bank- och finansbyrå: How is the mortgage rate set? (Swedish)
- TV4/TT: Why banks are raising mortgage rates now, 20 December 2025 (Swedish)
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.