Sweden's Riksbank: policy rate from 1.75% to 2.4% by autumn 2027
Hikes should start in 2026. If banks follow, a variable SEK 3,000,000 loan may cost about SEK 19,000 more a year, SEK 13,000 after tax relief.
Sweden's Riksbank is keeping its policy rate ("styrränta") at 1.75%. But the central bank now says the rate needs to rise more than its June 2026 forecast showed. If the outlook holds, the hikes start this year.
Why the Riksbank is turning upward
GDP grew faster than expected in the second quarter, partly for temporary reasons. The Swedish economy is approaching normal economic conditions. The upswing looks broad, and sentiment has improved further.
Measured inflation is low, largely because of temporary government measures. Excluding them, inflation is fairly close to 2%. Oil, electricity and fuel prices have risen recently, and the krona has kept weakening. The war in the Middle East goes on and keeps disrupting supply.
The new rate path
| Quarter | June 2026 forecast | September 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 1.82% | 1.85% |
| Q1 2027 | 1.89% | 2.07% |
| Q2 2027 | 1.93% | 2.24% |
| Q3 2027 | 1.97% | 2.38% |
The forecast points to a policy rate of about 2.4% a year from now. If there are signs of a stronger and more lasting rise in inflation, the Riksbank says it will raise rates faster than that.
What it means for your mortgage
Bolån Radar's data shows six large banks' average three-month rates between 2.67% and 2.77% in August 2026. Take a SEK 3,000,000 loan at 2.70%. That costs SEK 81,000 a year.
If the policy rate rises by just over 0.6 points, as the forecast shows, and your bank follows, the variable rate ends up around 3.33%. The loan then costs about SEK 100,000 a year, roughly SEK 19,000 more. After the 30% interest deduction ("ränteavdrag") the increase is about SEK 13,000 a year.
Fixed rates have already started to climb. Several banks raised them last week, including Swedbank, whose two-year list rate ("listränta") is now 3.89%. With a fixed loan, you are affected only when the fixed period ends.
Your own rate can differ from the banks' averages. The personalized rates page works out what banks could offer you.
Next decision
The next rate decision is on 4 November 2026.
Sources
- Riksbank: Monetary policy decision, September 2026 (Swedish)
- Riksbank: Press release 24 September 2026 (Swedish)
- Bolån Radar: historic average rates
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.