Swedish mortgage rate up 2 points? Can you pay SEK 3,500 more a month
On a SEK 3,000,000 loan that is SEK 60,000 more a year before tax relief. Borrow alone and the rise costs about SEK 45,700 after relief, not SEK 42,000.
You have a SEK 3,000,000 mortgage at a variable rate of 2.7%. If the rate rises by 2 percentage points, the loan costs SEK 60,000 more a year. After the interest deduction it is about SEK 42,000, or SEK 3,500 a month. Can your budget take that?
Why test 2 points?
It has happened before, and fast. Between May 2022 and September 2023, the Riksbank raised its policy rate ("styrränta") from 0 to 4%. According to Finansinspektionen, the Swedish financial supervisor, the average rate on new variable mortgages was about 4.6% in December 2023. This year it has been around 2.3%.
Today the Riksbank expects to raise rates. Its September 2026 forecast has the policy rate at an average of 2.3% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028, against 1.75% now.
That is a gentle rise. But the Riksbank also says it will raise faster if inflation picks up. A stress test is about being ready for what is not in the forecast.
How much more the loan costs
The example is a couple who share a SEK 3,000,000 loan equally. Average rates for a three-month term were around 2.7% at the big banks in August 2026. You can work out your own likely rate on the personalized rates page.
| Rate rise | New rate | Extra per year | Extra per month | Extra per month after deduction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 3.7% | SEK 30,000 | SEK 2,500 | SEK 1,750 |
| +2 | 4.7% | SEK 60,000 | SEK 5,000 | SEK 3,500 |
| +3 | 5.7% | SEK 90,000 | SEK 7,500 | SEK 5,250 |
The interest deduction ("ränteavdrag") is 30% of your interest cost up to SEK 100,000 per person a year. Above that limit, it is 21%. The couple in the example stay under the limit even at 5.7%.
If you hold the loan alone, the picture changes. At 4.7%, you pay SEK 141,000 in interest. The deduction on the part above SEK 100,000 is only 21%. The rise then costs you about SEK 45,700 a year after tax relief, not SEK 42,000.
Do not forget amortization
Interest is only part of your monthly cost. If you borrow more than 70% of the home's value, you must amortize ("amortera") 2% a year. On SEK 3,000,000, that is SEK 60,000, or SEK 5,000 a month. That amount does not change when rates rise.
Run your own stress test
- List your fixed housing costs. Interest, amortization, the co-op fee or running costs, electricity and insurance.
- Add 2 points to your rate. Calculate after tax relief, with the right deduction for you.
- Compare with what you have left each month. Is there still a surplus, or does the budget go negative?
- Check your savings buffer. How many months could you cover the higher cost from savings?
If your margin is too thin
- Fix part of the loan. You then know the cost of that part, even if rates rise.
- Build a buffer now. Save SEK 3,500 a month for a year and you have SEK 42,000, which is one year of the higher cost.
- Negotiate your rate. Compare your rate with your bank's average rate. A few tenths lower can save you thousands of SEK a year.
- Talk to the bank in time. If things get hard, the bank can sometimes grant a temporary pause in amortization, for example after job loss or long sick leave.
Sources
- Riksbank: policy rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent, 24 September 2026
- Riksbank: interest rates and exchange rates, policy rate
- Finansinspektionen: mortgage rates have levelled out, 4 September 2026
- Skatteverket: tax reductions, deficit of capital
- Act (2026:226) on limiting mortgage credit, riksdagen.se
- Government bill 2025/26:119, riksdagen.se
This content is general information, not financial or legal advice. Bolån Radar collects data from banks and authorities and cannot guarantee that it is complete or free of errors. Talk to your bank or an adviser before you decide.