Electricity and fuel lift Sweden's inflation to 1.5% in September 2026
CPIF inflation rose from 0.7% in August 2026. Electricity rose 11.7% and fuel 13.3% in one month. The Riksbank's next rate decision is on 4 November 2026.
CPIF inflation rose from 0.7% in August 2026. Electricity rose 11.7% and fuel 13.3% in one month. The Riksbank's next rate decision is on 4 November 2026.
On a SEK 3,000,000 loan that is SEK 60,000 more a year before tax relief. Borrow alone and the rise costs about SEK 45,700 after relief, not SEK 42,000.
SEB's August 2026 averages: 2.67% variable, 3.16% fixed for three years. On the Riksbank forecast, fixing saves only about SEK 1,800 a year.
Banks fund fixed mortgages with bonds. The yield on two-year mortgage bonds rose from 2.42% on 1 July 2026 to 3.13% on 18 September 2026.
Hikes should start in 2026. If banks follow, a variable SEK 3,000,000 loan may cost about SEK 19,000 more a year, SEK 13,000 after tax relief.
Inflation and growth in summer 2026 beat the Riksbank's forecast. A 0.25-point hike would add SEK 7,500 a year to a SEK 3 million mortgage.
The policy rate stays at 1.75% on 17 June 2026. In our example, a variable rate still beats a two-year fixed rate even after a 0.25-point hike.
CPIF inflation fell to 0.8% in April 2026 and growth is weak. The Riksbank may still raise rates if the Middle East war sets off broad inflation.
VAT on food fell from 12% to 6% on 1 April 2026. A family spending SEK 8,000 a month on groceries pays about SEK 440 less.
The CPIF inflation forecast for 2026 rises from 0.9% to 1.5% on energy prices. Short market rates are up, so variable mortgages can still get dearer.
The policy rate stays at 1.75% for some time. A SEK 3 million variable loan costs about SEK 4,585 a month after tax relief. Next decision: 19 March 2026.
The policy rate is 1.75%. A 0.25-point move changes a SEK 3 million variable loan by SEK 7,500 a year. Fixed rates follow the bond market instead.